Aaron Boyd
1 min readFeb 9, 2024


In the short term, yes. And the human cost will be infuriating. Many, many innocent people will die because of this.

But in the long-term, viewed solely from a strategic perspective, Putin hasn't bought the House. He's leasing it.

It's kind of ridiculous to think the American military-industrial complex, which for years was criticized for its outsized influence on lawmakers, is just going to sit in a corner drooling at a wall while Russia very, very slowly inches across Ukraine, while the whole world is screaming "Sell them more weapons!"

This is close to a dream scenario for the defense industry. Huge demand, zero risk to American lives, clear moral distinction with broad public support for their customers, an enemy weak enough to use to harvest tons of real-world data from, and it's all to support global democracy against a clearly defined villain that's dumb enough to sit there and let you bomb it with near-impunity.

There is no scenario where the MIC does not, sooner or later, find a way to give House Republicans a better deal than Putin.

The cost will be moral and humanitarian. But Russia is not about to start rampaging across the remaining 80% of the country.