First off, I don't think the Trump administration is capable of a conspiracy because that implies they're able to keep a secret for longer than 30 seconds without accidentally announcing it on Twitter, then attempting to hold a boat parade for the conspiracy, then denying it exists, then admitting half of it exists but the other half doesn't, then accidentally swapping which half is real and which isn't, then taking a nap because it's 2 PM and being President is hard work.
The problem isn't that conspiracy theories are categorically wrong, it's that they're very easily abused by dumb people that vastly overestimate their own intelligence and don't see any problem with lazily tossing them around as a convenient way to explain virtually anything.
As a general rule, the likelihood of a conspiracy is inversely proportional to the number of conspirators. If I use the office copier to take a picture of my butt and threaten to send it to Biden if he doesn't make Canada a state, and I tell my boss about my plan because I think he'll be proud of me for getting involved in politics, that technically is a conspiracy. But if I tell Biden and the entire population of Canada about my plan and offer to cut all of them in if they cooperate, that's significantly less likely to work.